Reproducible feasibility model
Enter project inputs and their source. Published ROI ranges do not generate results. Use one currency; annual inputs include your chosen inflation and price changes.
Enter every annual value; use an explicit zero for inapplicable items. Market inputs have not been approved for this study.
Asset disposal proceeds belong only in the final year; do not count the same sale more than once.
| Years | Units sold | Revenue | OPEX | EBITDA | Annual depreciation | Project operating tax | Change in working capital | Subsequent CAPEX | Free cash flow before exit | Net asset disposal in final year only | Working capital recovery | Project cash flow | Interest paid | Tax after interest | Debt principal repayment | Debt balance settled at exit | Equity cash flow | Operating break-even units | Operating break-even revenue | Break-even utilization % | Cumulative project cash flow since initial investment | Cumulative equity cash flow since initial investment | Cumulative gap beyond initial equity | Cash available for debt service (model estimate) | Debt service: interest + principal + final balloon | Outstanding debt after payments | Debt service coverage ratio (estimate) |
|---|
Annual cash flows by scenario
All figures are recomputed year by year from your inputs, in the model currency. A scenario above declared capacity has no fabricated values.
| Scenario | Years | Revenue | EBITDA | Project cash flow | Equity cash flow | Cumulative gap beyond initial equity | Cash available for debt service (model estimate) | Debt service: interest + principal + final balloon | Debt service coverage ratio (estimate) | Operating break-even status |
|---|
| Reproducible feasibility model | Project NPV | Project IRR | Average annual accounting return on initial equity (not cash yield) | Payback including exit | Peak additional funding requirement | Minimum debt service coverage | Years operating cash falls short of debt service | Years break-even is not achievable at capacity |
|---|
CSV units: IRR, ROI, utilization and shocks are percentage points (12 means 12%); DSCR is a ratio (1.2 means 1.2×); payback is in years. All money uses the selected currency. Source review dates are user-provided, not independent verification.
Methodology · 5.0
Revenue = capacity × utilization × unit price. EBITDA = revenue minus variable, fixed, payroll and fixed energy costs. Production-linked energy belongs only in unit cost. FCF = EBITDA minus operating tax, subsequent CAPEX and working-capital change. Annual positive profits are taxed without automatic loss carryforwards or incentives. Depreciation, working capital and inflation are explicit annual inputs. Final working capital is fully recovered and remaining debt repaid at the horizon. NPV uses year-end cash flows in model currency, without implicit FX conversion. You set sensitivity changes within capacity. Fractional payback assumes even cash flows during the year. Recovery that depends on disposal proceeds or working-capital release at year end is dated at that year end. Asset disposal proceeds belong only in the final year; do not count the same sale more than once. The year-end gap assumes earlier positive cash flows are retained. It excludes intra-year cash shortfalls and new financing charges and does not double-count initial equity. Scenario cannot be calculated: assumed demand exceeds declared operating capacity. Revise assumptions or document extra capacity; no return is reported for this case. Indicative coverage, not a lender covenant: available cash = EBITDA − estimated profit tax after interest − reinvestment − working-capital change. Debt service includes interest, scheduled principal and the final balloon. Asset sale and final working-capital recovery are excluded. This is not verified cash tax or the definition in a loan contract. Operating break-even compares required units with declared annual capacity; a displayed theoretical amount is not proof it can be achieved.
Revenue = capacity × utilization × unit price
EBITDA = revenue − variable costs − fixed costs − payroll − fixed energy
FCF = EBITDA − operating tax − CAPEX − ΔWC
NPV = Σ CF(t)/(1+r)^t
Break-even units = fixed operating costs / (price − variable unit cost)
CFADS (model proxy) = EBITDA − equity cash-tax estimate − subsequent CAPEX − ΔWC
Debt service = interest + scheduled principal + final balloon
DSCR = CFADS / debt service (not a contractual lender ratio)
Study scope and how to read it
This page is a project-specific decision model, not a generic sector template. Library capital and ROI ranges are planning variables for comparison, not fixed prices or return promises. Before investing, replace each material assumption with a quotation, contract, operating record or reviewable market source.
This study is specifically for E-commerce fulfilment centre. The library capital range is $120,000 to $350,000; ROI: 10–25% · Planning range; not model-calculated. Cost inputs: inventory/sourcing, content/creative, marketplace and payment fees, storage/fulfilment, shipping and returns, marketing/CAC, customer service and working capital. Revenue is built from: orders × AOV × gross margin, less returns, discounts, platform/payment fees, logistics and customer acquisition; inventory turns must be measured.
Sector context
E-commerce is driven by product margin, CAC, conversion, returns, inventory, logistics, marketplace fees, repeat purchase and exportability; high revenue is not the same as high profit.
Project economics map
| Dimension | Project-specific variables |
|---|---|
| Revenue engine | GMV / gross merchandise value · gross margin |
| Operating KPIs | CAC / customer acquisition cost · order accuracy · working-capital days |
| Sensitivity variables | GMV / gross merchandise value · CAC / customer acquisition cost · gross margin |
| Evidence pack | bank and collection records · customer contracts / bookings / orders · supplier / equipment quotations · actual operating logs |
| Red flags | supplier concentration · FX exposure |
Revenue engine
For E-commerce fulfilment centre, revenue does not start from a headline ROI. It starts from measurable units: GMV / gross merchandise value · gross margin. Every unit must tie to a reviewable price, volume and time period.
Operating KPIs
The operating dashboard for this project should monitor: CAC / customer acquisition cost · order accuracy · working-capital days. An operating assumption without a record or source remains a scenario, not a fact.
Sensitivity variables
Project sensitivity testing changes the variables that matter most here: GMV / gross merchandise value · CAC / customer acquisition cost · gross margin. Each change is traced to break-even, cash flow and return rather than a standalone marketing percentage.
Evidence pack
Evidence required before accepting the base case: bank and collection records · customer contracts / bookings / orders · supplier / equipment quotations · actual operating logs. If a material document is missing, the variable remains “needs verification” rather than being silently estimated.
Red flags
Key red flags that lower confidence or trigger deeper review: supplier concentration · FX exposure.
E-commerce fulfilment centre — Project-specific financial model
These weights are a capital-allocation planning anchor, not market prices or supplier quotes. They total 100% and must be replaced by project evidence before the Base Case is accepted.
Model status: planning; not yet evidence-validated · CAPEX allocations and stress tests are recorded planning inputs, not verified quotations or actual cash flows. Source links alone do not substantiate the return or costs of a particular project.
Planning CAPEX allocation
| Dimension | Share of initial capital |
|---|---|
| warehouse fit-out & safety | 24% |
| equipment CAPEX | 20% |
| operating/payment systems | 10% |
| professional, studies & permits | 5% |
| launch & working capital | 24% |
| sales & marketing | 5% |
| execution/liquidity reserve | 12% |
OPEX drivers
- staff
- utilities
- maintenance & repairs
- operating/payment systems
- insurance
- professional fees
KPIs that must appear in the model
- orders processed per day
- order accuracy
- capacity utilization
- service / maintenance contracts
- working-capital days
Numeric stress tests
Apply these shocks to the Base Case after real project data are entered; they are not market forecasts.
| Driver | Stress change |
|---|---|
| orders processed per day | -20% |
| order accuracy | -5 pp |
| capacity utilization | -15 pp |
| staff | +15% |
How to build the actual feasibility model
1. Build revenue
Start from a measurable operating unit and connect it to actual price, volume and time. Never start from a target ROI and reverse-engineer assumptions to reach it. orders × AOV × gross margin, less returns, discounts, platform/payment fees, logistics and customer acquisition; inventory turns must be measured.
2. Build cost
Separate entry price or CAPEX from OPEX, working capital, finance, tax and contingency. Every material line should have a source, date and verification owner. inventory/sourcing, content/creative, marketplace and payment fees, storage/fulfilment, shipping and returns, marketing/CAC, customer service and working capital.
3. Build cash flow
Convert revenue and cost into monthly or quarterly cash flow showing when money is collected and paid, not accounting profit alone. Show working-capital needs and any funding gap before break-even.
4. Break-even
Calculate how many units, nights, tonnes, contracts or customers are needed to cover fixed cost after contribution margin. Without a measurable operating unit, the model is not decision-ready.
5. Currency and tax
Separate operating performance from FX and tax effects. Measure the result in the investor’s base currency too, and do not include an incentive or exemption in the base case before eligibility is verified.
Scenario matrix
Most sensitive variables for this project: GMV / gross merchandise value · CAC / customer acquisition cost · gross margin
| Scenario | Assumption rule | What changes |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Lower or slower revenue, higher cost and realistic delay. Use defensible boundaries rather than arbitrary worst-case figures. | GMV / gross merchandise value · CAC / customer acquisition cost · gross margin |
| Base | Only numbers supported by documents, comparables or operating records. Missing inputs remain explicitly unverified. | bank and collection records · customer contracts / bookings / orders · supplier / equipment quotations · actual operating logs |
| Upside | Operationally explainable improvement such as higher utilisation, better productivity or stronger pricing; never the core purchase justification. | GMV / gross merchandise value · CAC / customer acquisition cost · gross margin |
Decision gates before investing
Legal & regulatory
Ownership, rights, licences, approvals and required contracts exist and are enforceable or transferable.
Market & demand
End customer, price, volume and competition are proven in the actual micro-market, not only at country level.
Operations & capacity
Capacity, labour, suppliers, operator and schedule can produce the assumed revenue unit.
Finance & cash flow
Cash flow, working capital, tax and debt remain serviceable under the conservative case.
Capital structure
Funding source, covenants, security, drawdowns and repayment do not turn a good asset into a fragile deal.
Exit & liquidity
A credible buyer or exit mechanism exists, with realistic time, cost and transferability understood.
Capital allocation map
Do not apply one reserve percentage to every project. Size contingency from schedule, supply, volatility and ramp-up risk.