TCMB publishes weekly weighted-average loan-rate statistics. Sensitivity analysis should use those series as market context while separately applying the actual contract rate, reset mechanism and payment schedule of the financing being tested.
From market data to testable cash flow
Turn the review topic into provable facts: identity, date, amount, registry status, document or technical condition. Property investment analysis must separate market data from the calculation for the specific asset. TCMB publishes the House Price Index to track housing-market price movements and, in 2026, began publishing the New Tenant Rent Index to capture new-rental price developments more quickly than rent measures that include existing contracts. These indices do not provide the sale price or rent of one unit, so they must be combined with verifiable local comparables.
Calculate gross yield from annual rent relative to price, then calculate net yield after vacancy, management, maintenance, insurance, taxes, dues and non-recoverable costs. For a capitalization rate, use NOI before debt service and distinguish property performance from leveraged equity return. The financial effect should be expressed in a traceable number—price, cash flow, tax, amount at risk or remediation cost—not in a vague label such as “acceptable”. Any rent-growth, resale-price or interest-rate assumption should be stress-tested with alternative scenarios rather than accepted as a single forecast. For each fact use a source capable of proving it and link the result to its effect on purchase, ownership or cost.
Taxes that depend on year and owner status
On exit, disposal of certain real property within five years of acquisition can fall under value-increase gain rules of the Income Tax Law, subject to the owner’s circumstances and statutory exceptions. Keep returns, receipts and cost evidence because they affect both verification and resale analysis. Turn the review topic into provable facts: identity, date, amount, registry status, document or technical condition. A property tax file is not proved by one receipt.
Municipal property tax depends on the tax value, property category and location, and GİB states that values calculated for 2026 are subject to a specific cap relative to 2025 values; obtain the current value and debt position from the competent municipality when it matters rather than carrying an old figure into a new year. Rental income is governed separately by GİB rules, so distinguish rent actually received, deductible expenses, the chosen expense method and the resident/non-resident position of the owner. The financial effect should be expressed in a traceable number—price, cash flow, tax, amount at risk or remediation cost—not in a vague label such as “acceptable”. For each fact use a source capable of proving it and link the result to its effect on purchase, ownership or cost.
Payment trail and beneficiary proof
A request to use a new account, a third party or a route outside the agreed structure is a stop signal until authority and reason are resolved. TKGM also has specific foreign-exchange purchase-document instructions for foreign transactions where they apply, so not every bank receipt serves the same legal purpose. Preserve the transfer order, bank confirmation, posting evidence and a reference linking the transfer to the exact instalment. Turn the review topic into provable facts: identity, date, amount, registry status, document or technical condition.
Keep a reservation deposit, sale price and brokerage commission separate, and never replace an auditable banking trail with an oral confirmation. The payment path is part of transaction due diligence, not a separate bookkeeping step. The financial effect should be expressed in a traceable number—price, cash flow, tax, amount at risk or remediation cost—not in a vague label such as “acceptable”. Match beneficiary name, bank account, currency, amount and transfer reference to the contract and to the seller or properly authorised recipient, and independently verify any change in payment instructions before sending funds. For each fact use a source capable of proving it and link the result to its effect on purchase, ownership or cost.
Testing a financing-rate reset
Interest-rate risk is not captured by the headline nominal rate alone. Read the finance agreement to identify whether the rate is fixed or variable, the repricing reference and margin, reset frequency and any caps or floors, then build a payment schedule for each reset date rather than assuming one instalment for the whole loan. Separate principal, interest and fees and stress a higher financing cost while rent stays flat, because the pressure appears in debt-service coverage and investor cash flow, not merely in the advertised loan rate. If property income and debt are in different currencies, add an exchange-rate scenario instead of hiding that risk inside the interest assumption. Never substitute a market-average rate for the borrower’s written contract terms, and do not treat future refinancing availability as a guaranteed escape from a downside case.
2026 analytical update — Interest Rate Reset Risk for Property Finance
If the facility can reprice, test debt service at several reset rates rather than only the introductory rate. Pair each rate scenario with rent and NOI from the same period, because higher financing cost with flat rent compresses DSCR immediately.
Annual CPI inflation was 31.51% in August 2026, while the CBRT kept the policy rate at 37% on 10 September 2026. Separate nominal from real return and do not assume today’s financing conditions will persist through the whole holding period.
Formula / check: Reset stress = debt service after repricing / NOI under the same stress period.